I find this to be a fun game to play each year, how well have drafts from 5 years ago performed?
I have been running these numbers for the last 4 years and so I have the numbers from 2018 to 2021 now. During those years the San Francisco 49ers have the best average ranking 8.25 in their draft performance. Again, this is focused on 5-year value added to the team. Houston ranks last during those years averaging ranking 26.25.
From those years 2018 to 2021 these are the top 5 teams in terms of where they consistently ranked on adding value to their teams through the draft. I'll highlight the teams in Green who still have the same GM today that they did during these years and in red the ones that don't.
SFO 8.25
CIN 8.75
DAL 9.25
BUF 10.25
IND 12
Here are the bottom 5 teams.
HOU 26.25 current GM took over in 2021. HOU ranked 19th in 2021.
NYG 26 current GM took over in 2022.
NOR 25.25
TEN 23.25 current GM took over in 2025
LAR 22
Here is the full list from 2021 and how they ranked. TDScore = Team Draft Score, TPScore = Total Player Score, Vlost = Value Lost (TPScore - TDScore), VPP = Value Per Pick based on the TDScore.
OK let's grade the 2021 draft in 2026. We'll go alphabetically.
Arizona TD Grade = C, VPP Grade = C, Overall = C
By value the best player the Arizona Cardinals drafted in 2021 was Zaven Collins, LB. He is still with the team and has been a solid player adding 24 points of value over 5 years, but for a first-round pick that is a pretty poor performance. Their C means they drafted some contributors but no difference makers. Arizona had a boom of a draft in 2020 ranking 6th, but each other year I've tracked came in the bottom 7. Steve Keim was their GM during this run of drafts. He was replaced in 2023 with Monti Ossenfort. It will be interesting to see how Arizona ranks when we get up into the 2023, 2024 and 2025 draft.
Atlanta TD Grade = B, VPP Grade = C, Overall = C
Atlanta has gotten 88.88 points of value from the players they drafted in 2021 and only lost 11.11 points to free agency. So they have had some success and also kept most of their players. They had a total of 9 picks. Kyle Pitts WR and Drew Dalman C are their top players from this draft. For the 4th pick in the draft Pitts has been disappointing but finding Dalman in the 4th round was valuable. Problem is Dalman has now moved on to Chicago where he made the Pro Bowl in 2025. All in all they get a B for TD because of the value added over the years of 88.88, but disappointing overall draft so really closer to a C. 2021 was the first year for GM Terry Fontenot. They ranked 13th in overall TD, so not too bad. It will be interesting to see how they progress.
Baltimore TD Grade = C, VPP Grade = C, Overall = D
Baltimore had 8 picks which is standard for Baltimore and so at worst they should get enough value out of their draft picks to get a passing grade over five years, and they did that getting a total of 59.59 points and averaging 7.45 points per pick. The problem is Baltimore had two first round picks and two third round picks in this draft. When you are a team with that kind of draft capital at least one of your first-round picks needs to hit big and the rest of those picks need to be contributors. They got no stars in this draft and one of their top 100 picks contributed nothing. Eric DeCosta was the GM in 2021 and is still the GM. I wonder if he's done much better over these past few years, if not we may have a clue as to why the Ravens are struggling to keep a Super Bowl contending team.
Buffalo TD Grade = B, VPP Grade = B, Overall = C
Buffalo had 3 top 100 picks and similar to Baltimore they got two solid players in their top 100 picks, but their second-round pick never contributed. Their two contributors have been better than Baltimore and so their TDGrade rises up to a B. Similar to Baltimore this may give us some insight into why the Bills have struggled over the last two years to push for the Super Bowl. Hard to do when only 3 out of 8 picks contribute anything over 5 years.
Carolina TD Grade = B, VPP Grade = C, Overall D
It may seem harsh to give them an overall grade of D when their TDGrade is a B. They did get 85.85 points of value out of this draft, but with 11 picks you should get at least 80 points of value over 5 years. Hit on one really good player and you'll get more than half of that. Problem is the Panthers didn't hit on any big players and with 11 picks, you need to fill your roster with stars and depth. They had four top 100 picks. None of them are stars, Jaycee Horn is good when he's healthy, but he'll never be the level of CB they drafted. Their other three top 100 picks have provided Carolina with a combined 27 points of value. They are on a new GM since those days, so we'll see how this new GM is doing when we get to 2024.
Chicago TD Grade = B, VPP Grade = B, Overall D
Yes Chicago got 76.76 points of value and averaged 10.97 points of value per pick, but none of the players they drafted in 2021 that contributed to the team are still on the roster. Most of the value they got from this draft came from Justin Fields. Their next three picks all were contributors, but none of their top 4 picks are still on the team. In 2022 the Bears got a new GM and so maybe that explains why they moved on from all of these players, but still, it's like a wasted draft when we look back on it from 5 years out.
Cincinnati TD Grade = B, VPP Grade = B, Overall B
I'm a tough grader, not sure when I'll give a team an A, guess we'll see if we have any in this draft class. Cincinnati gets our first Overall B though because they hit a home run with their first-round pick Ja'Marr Chase. They also added three depth players. With 10 picks in the draft it would have been good to see them add a lot more depth to their roster or maybe pickup one real contributor. But still hitting on a player that helped to get you into the Super Bowl counts for something.
Cleveland TD Grade = C, VPP Grade = C, Overall D
Out of 8 picks Cleveland managed to get two contributors and some depth. Normally that would score them a C, but the problem is they no longer have one of their contributors Greg Newsome II, so I can't really give them credit for that pick. You could argue that he helped get the team into the playoffs, but I'm not going to give them that. Andrew Berry has been the Cleveland GM since 2020, and this was his draft.
Dallas TD Grade = B, VPP Grade = B, Overall = C
By every measure it would be easy to say that Dallas had a very solid easy B draft. They had 11 picks and got a superstar, a production player and depth. That's what you want in a draft. Problem is they no longer have the superstar and while they had him they were unable to do anything with him. If they had made a conference championship even I could say yes they get a B even though they let him go, but the fact that he's gone after 5 years and they really never won anything with him is just hard to justify anything other than a C.
Denver TD Grade =A, VPP Grade = A, Overall = A
With 10 picks the Broncos got a superstar player and four productive players. Two of those productive players have moved on, but still I think it is hard to give them anything other than an A. Patrick Surtain II, Quinn Meinerz, and Jonathon Cooper were all important to the run they had this season. That was George Paton's first draft with Denver and I would say it worked out well for them. Maybe they should have kept Javonte Williams to help their running game this year, but a draft that provides 3 key starters is a very solid draft.
Detroit TD Grade = A, VPP Grade = A, Overall = A
With only 7 picks this is about as good of a draft as you could have. You got two superstars in the draft with Penei Sewell and Amon-Ra St. Brown, plus two production players, and some depth players. Hard to beat a draft like this. They never made it to Super Bowl, but this draft was at the heart of the rise of the Lions.
Green Bay TD Grade = B, VPP Grade = C, Overall = C
There are a few reasons why this gets an overall C rating. One is that with 9 picks they didn't land anything other than some production players. No stars and no depth, but then on top of that those players have mostly moved on. Out of their nine picks they got five guys who have been fairly productive. In 2025 only two of them were still on the roster. Another player Cole Van Lanen has turned into a starting offensive lineman for Jacksonville and gave Green Bay nothing.
Houston TD Grade = C, VPP Grade = B, Overall = B
With only 5 picks it would be hard to get anything above a C on the TD Grade. Just aren't enough players to provide real value. The good thing for Houston is they got one star and some help from all of the players they drafted in 2021. Davis Mills was their first pick in the 3rd round which helped them get their legs under them, and then Nico Collins was also a 3rd rounder who has turned out to a be a real star for them. They got contributions for their other picks and so for a draft with really no expectations, no first or second round picks, they did pretty good. That was Nick Caserio's first draft. Houston is struggling to find an offense that works, but this was a good way to start your draft career.
Indianapolis TD Grade = C, VPP Grade = C, Overall = C
This is the quintessential C graded draft. From 7 picks they got one productive player who is still on the team, some other guys who contributed or were depth, 2 of which are no longer with the team and three players who really have done nothing. If Kwity Paye hadn't turned out to be a solid defensive lineman it would be a D.
Jacksonville TD Grade = A, VPP Grade = A, Overall = B
Maybe it seems unfair to give them an overall grade of B, but here is why. They had 5 top 100 picks in 2021, they got 1 star, Trevor Lawrence and four productive players with those picks. OK that's great. With their remaining 4 picks they got 2 points of value over the last 5 years. Also, out of those top 5 picks only 3 are still left with the team. They had two 4th round picks that gave them no value, that's when you have to at least be able to add depth to your roster and maybe find a productive player. The Jaguars have a new GM now and so we'll see how things go moving forward.
Kansas City TD Grade = A, VPP Grade = A, Overall = A
This is an easy one to grade. Kansas City lost the 2020 Super Bowl to Tampa Bay because of their offensive line. In 2021 they drafted Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith who would help them get back to the Super Bowl. On top of that they also got Nick Bolton and Noah Gray for production and depth. For a team that had 6 picks, they made the most of them.
San Diego TD Grade = B, VPP Grade = C, Overall = D
What can we say about this draft. They got three ok players out of their nine picks with Rashawn Slater, Asante Samuel Jr., and Josh Palmer. Only Slater is still with the team five years later. Their other six picks combined for a whopping 16 points of value over their career. Not just with the Chargers in the NFL. That's not even depth level production in the League. The reason I picked the five year mark to measure is because the players who are drafted high will be on a 5 year rookie deal and then on top of that any good players should be on their second contract. Are they still with the team or moved on. If the Chargers had gotten some play out of those other six players and then they had moved or, or they had been productive at other teams I would be willing to give some credit. None of those players did.
Los Angeles TD Grade = C, VPP Grade = D, Overall = D
It's hard to give this anything other than a D. They had 9 picks in this draft and today have one player, Tutu Atwell to show for it. They drafted some good players like Ernest Jones and Bobby Brown, but Jones sadly just helped the Seahawks win the Super Bowl. The rest of their picks really gave them nothing.
Las Vegas TD Grade = C, VPP Grade = C, Overall = D
The best players they drafted, Tre'von Moehrig, Divine Deablo, and Nate Hobbs are no longer with the Raiders. They have two left that were depth guys for them. Out of 7 picks that's a failing draft.
Miami TD Grade = B, VPP Grade = A, Overall = B
I'm tempted to grade them lower, but with 7 picks they did pretty good. They got a start in Jaylen Waddle and solid contributors in Jaelan Phillips, Jevon Holland, and Liam Eichenberg. The problem is Phillips and Holland are no longer with the team, and they got nothing, not even depth, from their other picks. So five years later they are left with only 2 players from this draft. Still those players helped to get the Dolphins into the playoffs and be competitive and so that counts for something.
Minnesota TD Grade = C, VPP Grade = D, Overall = D
With 11 picks Minnesota drafted 2 players who have had any kind of production in the NFL, Christian Darrisaw and Camryn Bynum. Bynum is no longer with the team. With 11 picks you just have to be able to do better than that. They did pick some depth players, but they have all played that role for other teams.
New Orleans TD Grade = C, VPP Grade = B, Overall = C
With only 6 picks New Orleans really needed to hit on at least half of their picks. They did get two solid contributors with their 2nd and 3rd round pick, but their first-round pick is out of the NFL after being less than a depth player. The Saints never have very many picks, it's how they roll.
New England TD Grade = C, VPP Grade = C, Overall = C
I'm tempted to give the Patriots a B when their TD and VPP grades come in as C's, but New England did make the playoffs with Mac Jones as their QB. It was the only time Belichick and the Patriots would make the playoffs without Tom Brady. They also got two solid contributors in Christian Barmore and Rhamondre Stevenson who were important to their 2025 run to the Super Bowl. The problem is with 8 picks they literally got no value from any of their other picks.
New York Giants TD Grade = F, VPP Grade = F, Overall = F
This was Dave Gettleman's last draft as the Giants GM. It was a complete flop. Their first round pick Kadarius Toney is out of the League and the only contributor they draftee Azeez Ojulari is no longer with the team.
New York Jets TD Grade = B, VPP Grade = C, Overall = C
The Jets had 10 picks and picked Zach Wilson as their future quarterback with the 2nd overall pick. In many ways I think this is a B draft. They had the 2nd overall pick and a spare roster. So they needed contributors, depth, and at least one star. If Wilson had hit I think this would have been an A draft because they did find a lot of players who have been playing in this League. The problem is they mostly found lower end contributors and Wilson was a complete bust.
Philadelphia TD Grade = A, VPP Grade = B, Overall = A
It's hard not to give the Eagles an A with this draft. They got a star in DeVona Smith a consistent pro-bowler in Landon Dickerson and a couple of contributors in Milton Williams, who helped them win a Super Bowl and is becoming a star with new England, and Kenneth Gainwell. This group helped them get to two Super Bowls and so all in all it's an A.
Pittsburgh TD Grade = B, VPP Grade = B, Overall = B
With 9 picks Pittsburgh got 3 solid contributors and 4 depth players. That's a successful draft. The problem for Pittsburgh is that they got no stars.
Seattle TD Grade = F, VPP Grade = D, Overall = F
The problem with only having 3 picks and none of them hit. Tre Brown was part of the Super Bowl this year, but outside of that not much to talk about.
San Francisco TD Grade = B, VPP Grade = B, Overall = C
This draft has to go down as a C because of the failure of their first-round pick Trey Lance. They traded a lot to get up to that pick and for it to be a complete failure really hurt the 49ers for a number of years. They did get a number of contributors and some depth players. Problem is when you take a big swing at QB like this, similar to the Jets, it really needs to hit.
Tampa Bay TD Grade = D, VPP Grade = D, Overall = D
When you draft 3 contributing NFL players in a 7 pick draft it's hard to imagine it being anything less than a C. That being said only one of those players was still on the roster in 2025. Problem is they completely wasted their 2nd round pick on Kyle Trask and their remaining three picks.
Tennessee TD Grade = D, VPP Grade = F, Overall = F
Out of their eight picks they had one depth player left on their roster in 2025 DL Rashad Weaver. This was a miserable draft and in many ways would signal the beginning of the end for the group that had been so successful in Tennessee.
Washington TD Grade = B, VPP Grade = C, Overall = C
With 10 picks in the draft you need to get a number of contributors and a number of depth players. In many ways I would say that is what Washington did. Their first three picks all turned out to be contributors in the League and six of their remaining picks ended up being depth pieces. Problem is that draft would get you a B if you were a perennial contender, the WFT were not, they needed to hit on some star talent and didn't.
